A Discussion on Armington Trade Substitution Elasticities

Applied partial and general equilibrium models used to examine trade policy are almost universally sensitive to trade elasticities. Indeed, the Armington elasticity, the degree of substitution between domestic and imported goods, is a key behavioral parameter that drives the quantitative, and sometimes the qualitative, results that policymakers use. While standard transparent approaches to econometric estimation of these elasticities have been offered for the last 30 years, the estimates are viewed as too small by many trade economists. A few robust findings emerge from the econometric literature: (1) more disaggregate analyses find higher elasticities, (2) long-run estimates are higher than short-run estimates, and (3) time series analyses generally find lower elasticities relative to cross-sectional studies. We offer simulation results to illustrate the sensitivity of general equilibrium models to Armington elasticites. We conclude with remarks on the current challenges that remain in determining these important parameters.International Relations/Trade,

A Discussion on Armington Trade Substitution Elasticities

Applied partial and general equilibrium models used to examine trade policy are almost universally sensitive to trade elasticities. Indeed, the Armington elasticity, the degree of substitution between domestic and imported goods, is a key behavioral parameter that drives the quantitative, and sometimes the qualitative, results that policymakers use. While standard transparent approaches to econometric estimation of these elasticities have been offered for the last 30 years, the estimates are viewed as too small by many trade economists. A few robust findings emerge from the econometric literature: (1) more disaggregate analyses find higher elasticities, (2) long-run estimates are higher than short-run estimates, and (3) time series analyses generally find lower elasticities relative to cross-sectional studies. We offer simulation results to illustrate the sensitivity of general equilibrium models to Armington elasticites. We conclude with remarks on the current challenges that remain in determining these important parameters.Computable general equilibrium; International Trade; Armington; elasticity

An Estimation of U.S. Industry-Level Capital-Labor Substitution

A key parameter that determines the distributional impacts of a policy shift in general equilibrium models is the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor. Despite the importance of this parameter in applied modeling, its identification continues to pose a challenge. Given the structure of most growth models, we posit that the true relationship between capital and labor is likely to be close to Cobb- Douglas. Using a rich new data set from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, we estimate substitution elasticities for 28 industries, which cover the entire economy, and provide an indication of the long- and short-run estimates. We fail to reject the Cobb-Douglas specification in 20 of the 28 industries. These findings lend support to the Cobb-Douglas specification as a transparent starting point in simulation analysis.Econometric Methods; Time Series Models; Computable General Equilibrium Models

Differential Epidemiology: IQ, Neuroticism, And Chronic Disease By The 50 U.S. States

Current research shows that geo-political units (e.g., the 50 U.S. states) vary meaningfully on psychological dimensions like intelligence (IQ) and neuroticism (N). A new scientific discipline has also emerged, differential epidemiology, focused on how psychological variables affect health. We integrate these areas by reporting large correlations between aggregate-level IQ and N (measured for the 50 U.S. states) and state differences in rates of chronic disease (e.g., stroke, heart disease). Controlling for health-related behaviors (e.g., smoking, exercise) reduced but did not eliminate these effects. Strong relationships also existed between IQ, N, disease, and a host of other state-level variables (e.g., income, crime, education). The nexus of inter-correlated state variables could reflect a general fitness factor hypothesized by cognitive epidemiologists, although valid inferences about causality will require more research.

Training Genetic Counsellors to Deliver an Innovative Therapeutic Intervention: their views and experience of facilitating multi-family discussion groups

Innovations in clinical genetics have increased diagnosis, treatment and prognosis of inherited genetic conditions (IGCs). This has led to an increased number of families seeking genetic testing and / or genetic counselling and increased the clinical load for genetic counsellors (GCs). Keeping pace with biomedical discoveries, interventions are required to support families to understand, communicate and cope with their Inherited Genetic Condition. The Socio-Psychological Research in Genomics (SPRinG) collaborative have developed a new intervention, based on multi-family discussion groups (MFDGs), to support families affected by IGCs and train GCs in its delivery. A potential challenge to implementing the intervention was whether GCs were willing and able to undergo the training to deliver the MFDG. In analysing three multi-perspective interviews with GCs, this paper evaluates the training received. Findings suggests that MFDGs are a potential valuable resource in supporting families to communicate genetic risk information and can enhance family function and emotional well-being. Furthermore, we demonstrate that it is feasible to train GCs in the delivery of the intervention and that it has the potential to be integrated into clinical practice. Its longer term implementation into routine clinical practice however relies on changes in both organisation of clinical genetics services and genetic counsellors' professional development

RCT of a client-centred, caseworker-delivered smoking cessation intervention for a socially disadvantaged population

Background: Disadvantaged groups are an important target for smoking cessation intervention. Smoking rates are markedly higher among severely socially disadvantaged groups such as indigenous people, the homeless, people with a mental illness or drug and alcohol addiction, and the unemployed than in the general population. This proposal aims to evaluate the efficacy of a client-centred, caseworker delivered cessation support intervention at increasing validated self reported smoking cessation rates in a socially disadvantaged population.Methods/Design: A block randomised controlled trial will be conducted. The setting will be a non-government organisation, Community Care Centre located in New South Wales, Australia which provides emergency relief and counselling services to predominantly government income assistance recipients. Eligible clients identified as smokers during a baseline touch screen computer survey will be recruited and randomised by a trained research assistant located in the waiting area. Allocation to intervention or control groups will be determined by time periods with clients randomised in one-week blocks. Intervention group clients will receive an intensive client centred smoking cessation intervention offered by the caseworker over two face-to-face and two telephone contacts. There will be two primary outcome measures obtained at one, six, and 12 month follow-up: 1) 24-hour expired air CO validated self-reported smoking cessation and 2) 7-day self-reported smoking cessation. Continuous abstinence will also be measured at six and 12 months follow up.Discussion: This study will generate new knowledge in an area where the current information regarding the most effective smoking cessation approaches with disadvantaged groups is limited.<br /

Effect of clinical signs, endocrinopathies, timing of surgery, hyperlipidemia, and hyperbilirubinemia on outcome in dogs with gallbladder mucocele

Gallbladder mucocele (GBM) is a common extra-hepatic biliary syndrome in dogs with death rates ranging from 7 to 45%. Therefore, the aim of this study was to identify the association of survival with variables that could be utilized to improve clinical decisions. A total of 1194 dogs with a gross and histopathological diagnosis of GBM were included from 41 veterinary referral hospitals in this retrospective study. Dogs with GBM that demonstrated abnormal clinical signs had significantly greater odds of death than subclinical dogs in a univariable analysis (OR, 4.2; 95% CI, 2.14–8.23; P < 0.001). The multivariable model indicated that categorical variables including owner recognition of jaundice (OR, 2.12; 95% CI, 1.19–3.77; P = 0.011), concurrent hyperadrenocorticism (OR 1.94; 95% CI, 1.08–3.47; P = 0.026), and Pomeranian breed (OR, 2.46; 95% CI 1.10–5.50; P = 0.029) were associated with increased odds of death, and vomiting was associated with decreased odds of death (OR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.30–0.72; P = 0.001). Continuous variables in the multivariable model, total serum/plasma bilirubin concentration (OR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01–1.04; P < 0.001) and age (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.08–1.26; P < 0.001), were associated with increased odds of death. The clinical utility of total serum/plasma bilirubin concentration as a biomarker to predict death was poor with a sensitivity of 0.61 (95% CI, 0.54–0.69) and a specificity of 0.63 (95% CI, 0.59–0.66). This study identified several prognostic variables in dogs with GBM including total serum/plasma bilirubin concentration, age, clinical signs, concurrent hyperadrenocorticism, and the Pomeranian breed. The presence of hypothyroidism or diabetes mellitus did not impact outcome in this study.Supplemental Table S1. Number of dogs included from each institution and years reviewed.Supplemental Table S2. Included breeds.Supplemental Table S3. Distribution of various reasons given for performing cholecystectomy in the 179 subclinical dogs with gallbladder mucocele (GBM).Supplemental Table S4. Distribution of clinical signs associated with systemic illness in 982 dogs with gallbladder mucocele.Supplemental Table S5. Distribution of reasons for death in-hospital (i.e. euthanized and died) in 179 dogs with gallbladder mucocele that underwent cholecystectomy.http://www.elsevier.com/locate/tvjlhj2020Companion Animal Clinical Studie

31st Annual Meeting and Associated Programs of the Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer (SITC 2016) : part two

Background The immunological escape of tumors represents one of the main ob- stacles to the treatment of malignancies. The blockade of PD-1 or CTLA-4 receptors represented a milestone in the history of immunotherapy. However, immune checkpoint inhibitors seem to be effective in specific cohorts of patients. It has been proposed that their efficacy relies on the presence of an immunological response. Thus, we hypothesized that disruption of the PD-L1/PD-1 axis would synergize with our oncolytic vaccine platform PeptiCRAd. Methods We used murine B16OVA in vivo tumor models and flow cytometry analysis to investigate the immunological background. Results First, we found that high-burden B16OVA tumors were refractory to combination immunotherapy. However, with a more aggressive schedule, tumors with a lower burden were more susceptible to the combination of PeptiCRAd and PD-L1 blockade. The therapy signifi- cantly increased the median survival of mice (Fig. 7). Interestingly, the reduced growth of contralaterally injected B16F10 cells sug- gested the presence of a long lasting immunological memory also against non-targeted antigens. Concerning the functional state of tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs), we found that all the immune therapies would enhance the percentage of activated (PD-1pos TIM- 3neg) T lymphocytes and reduce the amount of exhausted (PD-1pos TIM-3pos) cells compared to placebo. As expected, we found that PeptiCRAd monotherapy could increase the number of antigen spe- cific CD8+ T cells compared to other treatments. However, only the combination with PD-L1 blockade could significantly increase the ra- tio between activated and exhausted pentamer positive cells (p= 0.0058), suggesting that by disrupting the PD-1/PD-L1 axis we could decrease the amount of dysfunctional antigen specific T cells. We ob- served that the anatomical location deeply influenced the state of CD4+ and CD8+ T lymphocytes. In fact, TIM-3 expression was in- creased by 2 fold on TILs compared to splenic and lymphoid T cells. In the CD8+ compartment, the expression of PD-1 on the surface seemed to be restricted to the tumor micro-environment, while CD4 + T cells had a high expression of PD-1 also in lymphoid organs. Interestingly, we found that the levels of PD-1 were significantly higher on CD8+ T cells than on CD4+ T cells into the tumor micro- environment (p < 0.0001). Conclusions In conclusion, we demonstrated that the efficacy of immune check- point inhibitors might be strongly enhanced by their combination with cancer vaccines. PeptiCRAd was able to increase the number of antigen-specific T cells and PD-L1 blockade prevented their exhaus- tion, resulting in long-lasting immunological memory and increased median survival